Virtual Global Cooling
By Michael Floyd
Nearly two years ago, I used this space to describe an interesting dynamic that has repeated itself throughout the information age. A new technology comes along, and it's heralded as a new paradigm that will change the face of computing as we know it. Then a recoil effect occurs as the technology lags behind the hype and the promises. In the May 1996 issue, I dubbed this phenomenon "Web Winter." The untold part of this story is that the technology eventually succeeds, slipping quietly into the collective consciousness.
So, are we currently experiencing "virtual global cooling?" If so, when will things heat up again? The answer to the first question is, while it may not be an outright ice age for those trying to turn a profit, there is a distinct chill in the air. The problem is two-fold. First, the Internet has a history of freely sharing information, ideas, and -- most importantly -- software tools. Seasoned Web developers still prefer Apache to serve up HTML pages, tools like MySQL for database development, and languages like Perl to wire them together. While these developers are big consumers of software tools, they're not likely to pay big bucks for them.
The other problem is IS/IT, projected last year by several research firms to be the next big consumer of Web technologies. Well, that hasn't happened. IS managers already leery of Java cowboys and Web zealots face a downsized IS department, more complex systems, smaller budgets, and even smaller staffs. With smaller staffs comes an increased dependence on consultants, who quickly eat through already lean budgets.
