Risk Assessment
By Michael Swaine
Risk assessment is a contentious subject combining the disparate and difficult disciplines of mathematics and paranoia. When I proposed to the editors that I write a column on the true risks of various potential personal and global catastrophes, pointing out my impressive qualifications in abnormal psychology and mathematics, they counter-proposed that I survey Web Techniques readers on the subject. (The exact phrasing was, "The average Joe on the street probably knows as much as you do about this stuff, Mike.")
Always open to new ideas when given no alternative, I embraced this counter-proposal enthusiastically. Here, then, is the Web Techniques Risk-Assessment Survey. To each of the following events, or to as many of them as you like, please assign a probability (ideally between zero and one) of that event occurring in the next 12 months, and send your risk assessments to mike@swaine.com. The results will be published in a future issue, for the edification of all.
1. An alpha particle destroys a single bit of data on your hard disk.
2. A cataclysmic asteroid impact destroys all life on Earth.
3. A virus attack destroys all data on your hard disk.
4. A DoS attack destroys your day.
5. Life is discovered on Mars.
6. Martians claim to have invented hyperlinking.
7. Mars is bought by Cisco.
8. You're diagnosed with a brain tumor from using a cell phone.
9. You get a headache from using a cell phone.
10. You get a headache from paying for calls to you on your cell phone.<>
